Bulletin of Semashko National Research Institute of Public HealthBulletin of Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health2415-84102415-8429FSSBI «N.A. Semashko National Research Institute of Public Health»284610.69541/NRIPH.2024.03.018Научная статьяForecast for trends in medical demographic processes: 2002—2022 (Udmurt Republic)KichaDmitry I.d_kicha@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6529-372XBaginSergey A.03sabg@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7462-9691RukodaynyyOleg V.rukodaynyy_ov@pfur.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9134-7189Goloshchapov-AksenovRoman S.goloschapovaksenovr@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3085-7729UtevaAnastasia G.agu@rmiac18.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1251-2241Peoples' Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice LumumbaMinistry of health of the Republic of Udmurtia01102024311612627052025Copyright © 2025,2025<p>Medical and demographic analysis of the inter-district nature in certain regions is the basis of the organizational and methodological justification of the clinical and managerial improvement of various health subsystems. Primary medical care of the inter-district level refers to the most important component of maintaining the health of various medical and demographic groups. The research of the dynamics of medical and demographic processes includes the birth rate, incidence, mortality, the ratio of marriages and divorces, the migration of the population, as well as an assessment of the medical function of patients. On these results, it becomes possible to apply models of improving regional healthcare, developing and introducing new, more effective and affordable management technologies. The purpose of this fragment of the study was a regional medical and demographic dynamic analysis at the level of the Udmurt Republic for two decades 20022022 with the forecast of trends until 2030. A dynamic analysis of general and primary morbidity, mortality and maternal mortality, the intensity of divorces, marriages and migrations, and the dynamics of the population is assigned to the subject of the research. Based on the results, the development of practical recommendations was made to preserve human capital as socio-economic potential. The data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the Republican Medical Information and Analytical Center of the Ministry of Health of the Udmurt Republic for 20022022 were used. The forecast of medical and demographic trends was carried out using the R2 (determination coefficient). Medical and demographic analysis showed that in the region over the past 20 years, the total population, predominant due to urban age at the age of 1865 years, has been progressively reduced. The main causes of depopulation have a progressive increase in primary and general incidence of adults, maternal incidence and mortality, and a high level of migration of young people under the age of 34 to other regions. In order to solve the problem of increasing the population of the region, based on improving public health, it is planned to introduce the competency-based model of a specialist/paramedic/general practitioner and nurses at the stage of primary health care. A prognostic analysis of the show that the result will be achieved the optimal availability and quality of primary health care, the coverage of a medical examination of up to 99% of the population, a decrease in total and maternal incidence and mortality.<br /><br /></p>primary morbiditygeneral morbiditymortalitymaternal mortalitymigrationcompetency-based modelmedical specialistaccessibilityprimary health carecontinuous clinical examinationtrend forecastпервичная заболеваемостьобщая заболеваемостьсмертностьматеринская смертностьмиграциякомпетентностная модельврач-специалистдоступностьпервичная медико-санитарная помощьдиспансеризациятенденциипрогнозKicha D.I., Fomina A.V., Abramov A.Yu., Makaryan A.S., Rukodaynyy O.V. 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