Analysis of the demographic situation in the Samara region

Abstract


Aim: to analyze the demographic situation in the Samara region for the period 2010—2020.
Materials and methods. The database of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) 2 was used as information sources. Characteristics of the demographic situation used in this study: indicators characterizing the statics (population size, age-sex structure, the number of women of reproductive age) and the dynamics of the population of the Samara region (fertility, fertility, mortality, natural and migration growth). Demographic indicators were calculated using standard formulas.

lation, due to the urban population, the preservation of the sexual structure of the population and a change in the age structure of the population in terms of reducing the proportion of the working-age population. The consequences of the new coronavirus infection have manifested themselves in the form of a decrease in the population to a greater extent of working age. Attention is drawn to the decrease in the female population by 1.3% during the study period, a more rapid decrease in the female population of reproductive age by 15.1%, as well as a decrease in fertility by 9.9% and a decrease in the proportion of women in the age categories of 15—34 years, especially in the age category of 20—24 years (by 53%). The natural movement of the population of the Samara region is determined by negative trends: the decline in the birth rate since 2015 requires an assessment of the effectiveness of measures to maintain the birth rate and demographic policy in general. The decline in the mortality rate occurred at a slow pace, and the new coronavirus infection radically changed the situation to a negative one, respectively, the population loss rate increased significantly. Migration growth is not able to replace the decline of the population for natural reasons. The revealed trends require a more detailed analysis of the dynamics of demographic processes in relation to the female population of reproductive age.


About the authors

Igor A. Shmelev

Samara State Medical University

Author for correspondence.
Email: i.a.shmelyov@samsmu.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5973-9171

Russian Federation, Samara, Russian Federation

Sergey N. Cherkasov

Institute of Control SciencesV.A. Trapeznikov Academy of Sciences

Email: cherkasovsn@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1664-6802

Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation

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